安徽省城镇化、工业化、农业现代化与农村人口有效转移--基于1978-2012年时间序列数据的实证分析

摘要

Promoting the effective transfer of rural population in the context of steady and balanced development of urbaniza⁃tion, industrialization and agricultural modernization is an important path to the development of urbanization in China. Based on the empirical analysis of time series data of urbanization, industrialization and agricultural modernization in An⁃hui province during the year of 1978 to 2012, the paper points out that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship be⁃tween urbanization, industrialization and agricultural modernization. The industrialization and agricultural modernization have positive effect on rural population transfer which are not significant. The paper puts forward countermeasures and sug⁃gestions from the aspects of optimizing industrial structure, improving agricultural production mode and enhancing compre⁃hensive quality of rural population to promote the effective transfer of rural population and urbanization development in An⁃hui province.%在城镇化、工业化和农业现代化稳步和均衡发展背景下促进农村人口有效转移，是我国城镇化发展的重要路径。文章基于对安徽省1978-2012年时间序列数据的实证分析，指出城镇化、工业化和农业现代化之间存在长期均衡关系，工业化和农业现代化对安徽省农村人口有效转移有正向促进但是作用不够显著，并从促进产业结构优化、完善农业生产方式和提高转移人口综合素质等角度对推动安徽省农村人口有效转移和城镇化发展提出对策与建议。