Forecast of Maize Production in Henan Province

摘要

Considering the influence of meteorological factors on maize production, in order to improve the yield of maize in Henan Province, a grey combination model is constructed to predict the yield of maize in Henan Province. Firstly, the yield of maize in 2017 is obtained by GM (1, 1) model;secondly, the trend yield of maize is obtained by HP filter method, then the meteorological yield of maize is obtained, and the yield of maize reduction is determined according to the meteorological yield. Combined with Markov model, the maize yield reduction in various cities in Henan Province is forecasted. Finally, based on the reduction of production, policy recommendations are made for maize production in Henan Province.