基于随机性消费行为的品牌危机扩散预测研究

摘要

Consumer reaction to brand crisis will be different with time going because of the complexity and randomness of the decision-making process .This paper established a brand crisis spread prediction model based on consumer reac -tion at random by using system dynamics .The model considered the random consumer behavior and the differentiation of consumers .And then it studied variables′effect such as timeliness of company efforts , consumer′s loyalty index , disper-sion degree of consumers , etc on consumer purchasing -behavior in the course of time by using the software of VENSIM .%由于消费决策过程的复杂性和随机性，消费者对品牌危机事件的反应会随时间而产生更加复杂的变化。本文运用系统动力学的方法，构建了基于消费群体随机性反应的品牌危机动态扩散预测模型。模型考虑了消费群体的差异性和消费行为的随机性，并针对不同消费群体的特点，运用Vensim．PLE软件对模型进行仿真预测，分析了危机事件中沟通的时效性、消费者忠诚度系数、消费群体离散程度等影响因子，随时间变动对消费者购买行为的影响。