Near-Term Forecasts of Crisis and Instability Using Text-Based Events (NEAR-TERM FORECITE)

摘要

The purpose of this study was to develop a near-real-time capability to monitor, assess, and forecast indicators of near-term instability in nearly every country around the world. NEAR-TERM FORECITE is a set of models that monitor and forecast indicators associated with country instability using as input data the unique technology developed by Virtual Research Associates, Inc., to automatically parse and convert electronic news stories into indices that reflect the character and intensity of interactions between individuals, organizations, and countries. The data and analyses we produce are updated weekly and can be viewed and further analyzed on an interactive website developed in association with this project, called the FORECITE Monitor. This paper provides the context for conducting the study, describes the technology used, provides several illustrations of the approaches used to monitor and forecast instability, and concludes with a demonstration of the FORECITE Monitor.