厄尔尼诺-南方涛动现象与流行性感冒联系的系统评价

摘要

目的 调查分析既往及正在执行的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动现象(El Niio-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)与流行性感冒关联的相关研究,并评价ENSO对流行性感冒相关指标(如流感流行高峰的出现时间、流感样病例报告人数等)的影响,为进一步开展天气及气象因素影响流感病毒传播研究提供依据和建议.方法 计算机检索MEDLINE,EMBASE,Science Di-rect,HEED、中国生物医学文献数据库(CBMdisc)、万方学位论文全文数据库,查找1988～2016年10月已发表的关于ENSO与流行性感冒联系的文献,并运用循证医学方法进行文献数据提取和分析.结果 共检索到78篇文献,其中符合纳入标准的已发表文献10篇.二次文献研究显示,出现ENSO与流感大流行的发生,流感高峰的出现时间,流感样病例就诊数及重症死亡数都有较大关联,且El Niio和La Niia现象对流感相关指标的影响也不尽相同.结论 从纳入研究的已发表文献分析结果来看,ENSO与流行性感冒相关指标之间有较强的相关性.%We reviewed the past and on-going researches related to the relationship between El Niio-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and influenza,and evaluated the impact of ENSO on influenza-related indicators (such as the peak time of the influenza emergence and influenza-like illness and so on),to provide evidences and suggestions for the further work of effects of weather and meteorological factors on influenza virus transmission.MEDLINE,EMBASE,Science Direct,HEED,CBM disc,and Wanfang were searched for researches from 1988 to October 2016 on connection between ENSO and influenza.Referring to systematic review in Evidence-Based Medicine,the enrolled literatures were systematically reviewed and qualitative studies were integrated.Results showed that there were totally 78 documents which have been retrieved,and 10 were brought into this article.Secondary literatures suggested that there was a strong correlation between ENSO occurrence and an influenza pandemic,the peak time of the influenza emergence,ILI visits count and a greater number of deaths associated with severe,and the El Niio and La Niia on the impact of influenza-related indicators were not same.There is a strong correlation between ENSO and some influenza-related indicators.