基于专家权重和风险矩阵的潜艇集体逃生舱风险评估方法

摘要

The submarine collective escaping capsule is an innovative emergency equipment for lifesaving purposes. Owing to the lack of statistical data,the risk evaluation of submarine collective escaping cap⁃sules is difficult to perform through conventional methods. Aiming at the problem,this paper combines two distinct calculating procedures to form an innovative model for risk evaluation. Particularly,the calculation of the risk grade is based on expert weights,and the calculation of the risk probability is based on the fuzzy set theory. Focusing on the key technology of submarine collective escaping capsules,a preliminary risk evaluation is conducted. The results agree with those obtained from similar foreign equipment,which vali⁃dates the applicability and reliability of the proposed evaluation model.%　　潜艇集体逃生舱作为一种新型的救生装备，目前还缺少历史统计数据，因此利用传统的风险评估方法进行定量分析较为困难。为解决这一问题，把基于专家权重的风险等级计算方法和基于模糊集合的风险概率计算方法与风险矩阵相结合，给出了一种新的风险评估模型，并以集体逃生舱的关键技术为重点，对部分失效模式进行初步风险评估。通过对评估结果进行对比分析，发现与国外类似装备的评估结果基本一致，表明该方法具有较好的适用性，结果可信度高。