基于模糊层次分析的跑道侵入风险评估

摘要

目的 在模糊层次分析理论的基础上,本文从“人-环境-管理”四维度对造成跑道侵入的主要风险因素进行分析,运用基本排序的方法进行单排序,最终得到所有风险因素的危险度排序,从而为跑道安全运行提出相应措施.方法 首先构造了1个准则层和4个指标层的三角模糊互补判断矩阵;其次运用模糊层次分析法对造成跑道侵入的主要因素进行了初步分析,克服了层次分析法中判断矩阵的一致性检验过程相当繁琐而且不易操作的缺点;最后利用所述的三角模糊数排序法对跑道侵入风险20个因素进行危险度总排序.结果 本文得出7个影响跑道运行安全水平风险因素的重要程度排序,与实际运行结果状况基本相符.结论 本文提出的方法能够较好地评估跑道侵入风险因素的危险程度,根据评估结果可有针对性地提出减少和预防跑道侵入风险控制措施,具有一定的实用性.%Objective Based on the theory of fuzzy AHP,the paper analyzed the main risks leading to runway incursion according to "Human-Equipment-Environment-Management" these four aspects and conducted single ordering for the importance of these risks by applying basic ordering method,and finally obtained the importance order of all risks so as to provide a reference frame for formulating relevant measures.Methods Firstly,1 middle layer and 4 index layer triangular fuzzy complementary judgment matrix were set up;secondly,fuzzy AHP was used to preliminarily analyze the main factors leading to runway incursion,overcoming the cumbersomeness and operation difficulty of the checking process in judging the consistency of matrix in AHP;Finally,existing triangular fuzzy number ordering formula was used to sequence runway incursion risks.Results The importance degree of the 7 risk factors of the runway safety level is basically consistent with the actual operation result.Conclusion The method proposed in this paper can better evaluate the risk of runway risk factors.According to the assessment,results can be targeted to reduce and prevent runway invasion risk control measures,and it has certain practicability.