根据2002-2005年3a的田间试验资料和1990-2005年16a的大田土壤水分观测资料,分析确定了安徽淮北地区冬小麦、夏玉米干旱等级指标和适宜土壤水分指标.基于常规气象资料建立了36个逐旬中期降水预报模型,基于温度、降水等气象要素建立了24个土壤墒情逐月回归模型,基于土壤水分平衡方程建立了农业干旱逐旬预报数学模型,对各模型进行综合集成,建立了淮北地区农业干旱综合预警模型.根据干旱预报和降水预报结果,以及作物-土壤适宜水分指标、作物需水量关键期、临界期和土壤水分临界值等,开发了淮北地区冬小麦、夏玉米的干旱预警和灌溉决策计算机服务系统,使用简便快捷,业务化程度高,在近2a的业务应用中,服务效果显著.%Based on field experimental data from 2002 to 200S and soil moisture data on farmland from 1990 to 2005, the drought level index and soil moisture index for winter wheat and summer maize in Huaibei Areas of Anhui Province were built. The mid-term precipitation forecast model was built based on the typical meteorological data. The three-month drought prediction model was built based on the soil and water equilibrium equation. The monthly soil moisture regression model was built based on the temperature and precipitation data. The drought forecast model in Huaibei Areas was built by the integrating the above mentioned three models. According to the results of forecasted drought and rainfall, the suitable soil moisture index for corps, the necessary precipitation index for corps and the precipitation forecast, the drought precaution system for winter wheat and summer maize and the irrigation decision-making computer service systems were built. The results applied in the last two years in the service systems indicated that this system could be well used in the service systems.
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