灰色预测模型对医疗机构卫生人力数量预测研究

摘要

目的：采用灰色预测模型进行卫生人力数量预测研究，为实现卫生人力资源配置合理化提供参考依据。方法：通过建立灰色预测模型，对唐山市主要卫生人力数量进行预测，发现在卫生人员配置中存在卫生管理人员和护理人员比例缺乏及药学、检验等辅助科室人员不足的现象。结果：未来要重点加强除执业(助理)医师以外的卫生技术人员力量。结论：通过增加定向培养和招聘、提高待遇及转变思想等实现卫生人员配置合理化，为积极应对医改做好卫生人力资源的配置和储备。%Objective:To realize Tangshan City’s medical institutions of health and human resources. Methods: Using gray predict model to prognosis Tangshan City’s main medical human resources, and find out the phenomena of lacking of medical administrative staff, disproportional of nursing staff, and shorting of assistant departments staff, such as pharmacy and medical laboratory.Results: In the next few years, we should focus on strengthening the ability of the health technical personnel, except practicing(assistant)doctors.Conclusion:Through increasing the orientation training and recruitment, improving treatment, changing ideas, etc, to achieve the rationalization of health personnel allocation. In order to coping with health care reform, we should complete the allocation and reserve of health human resources.