中国东部地区旅游业竞争力研究——基于时序全局主成分分析法

摘要

从社会、经济、环境、资源等角度选取与旅游业竞争力相关的20个指标构建测评体系,采用时序全局主成分分析法,对中国东部地区12个省份2000—2013年旅游业竞争力进行评价,分析旅游业竞争力的地区差异和时空变化. 东部各省份的旅游业竞争力差异较大,随着旅游业的发展,地区差异有减小趋势. 根据旅游业竞争力的不同,将东部地区各省份分为三大类,三类之间的旅游竞争力有明显差异. 2000—2013年各省份旅游业竞争力出现平稳、上涨、波动3种动态演变状态,但与2000年相比,2013年各省份旅游业竞争力均有提高. 根据旅游产业竞争力测评结果,采用线性回归方法构建旅游业竞争力简单模型,从而达到简化计算和对旅游业竞争力进行预测的作用.%Selecting 20 indexes from the social, economic, environmental, resources and other factors which have close relationship with tourism industry competitiveness to construct evaluation system, based on time series a-nalysis and all-around principle component analysis ( PCA) , the tourism industry competitiveness from 2000 to 2013 of 12 provinces in Eastern China were chosen to evaluate and study.Then the regional differences and temporal and spatial variation on province-level in Eastern China were analysized .The regional differences on province-level of tourism industry competitiveness were large.Along with tourism industry developing, the differences in different prov-inces of Eastern China is becoming less.According the differences of tourism industry competitiveness on province-level, all the provinces in Eastern China can be divided into three categories;the differences in each category are sig-nificant.There appears stable, rising and fluctuant dynamic evolution of tourism industry competitiveness changes from 2000 to 2013.But compared with 2000, the tourism industry competitiveness of all provinces have improved. The next, according to the evaluation of tourism industry competitiveness, choosing linear regression method, the sim-pler model was constructed so as to have a simpler calculation and prediction of the tourism industry competiveness.