Nuclear proliferation in developing countries: A comparative study for selected countries.

摘要

The main purpose of this study is to explore major conditions conducive to nuclear proliferation, to project possible proliferation trends in the future, and hopefully to suggest some effective strategies to address the problem of nuclear proliferation.;This study attempts to provide a qualitative analysis of the causes and trends of nuclear proliferation by presenting generalizations of the causes of proliferation. While a variety of factors can be considered as causes of proliferation, three primary factors appear to influence the prospects for proliferation: (1) the technical capabilities and constraints; (2) motivation: incentives and disincentives; and (3) particular domestic and international situations. It is generally hypothesized that in order for a country to go nuclear, two basic conditions--some minimum level of indigenous national capability and strong motivations--must be simultaneously satisfied. Countries will be grouped according to their level of technology, motivations, and specific situations. Four countries--India, Pakistan, Israel, and South Africa (which are now known as the most proliferation-prone countries)--are selected as cases for examining the potential for nuclear proliferation. The above hypothesis is qualitatively examined by means of a multi-state comparison which will go beyond the descriptive level of a case study perspective. Certain similarities and differences found through comparing the four potential proliferating states form the basis for projecting a possible proliferation trend in the future. Final projection of the future trends of nuclear proliferation are presented with the observations through a brief comparison of the selected case countries with the five established nuclear powers and other potential proliferation countries.;In conclusion, while technology is, of course, one element necessary for the nuclear proliferation process, the fundamental conditions of nuclear proliferation appear to be motivational factors. The findings of this study show that if a country has strong motivations (taken in conjunction with adequate technical ability), it can produce a nuclear bomb. In short, "going nuclear" is a matter not of technological capability but of motivation. From this perspective, an effective strategy for addressing the problem of nuclear proliferation should be concerned ultimately with the reduction of motivations of a country rather than with the control of technology.