Integrated optimization modeling for the planning of regional energy and environmental systems.

摘要

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate change have made environmental concerns an integral part of a long-term energy planning system. With an increase in the GHG emissions, climate change and population growth, various issues of adaptive and abatement strategies from the energy sector have emerged. To evaluate their impacts on the energy sector, researchers from different disciplines have developed various energy-system models and applied them to global, national, and regional energy systems. But none of these models can be simply transferred from one system to another, due to varied concerns and/or the specific features of individual energy system.; Currently, there is no energy-system model available for the Toronto-Niagara Region (TNR), and the existing energy-system model for Saskatchewan is out of date with a number of weaknesses. In this thesis research, a dynamic optimization-based energy-system model (ESM) was developed to integrate environmental and socioeconomic issues within a long-term energy system planning framework. Two modeling systems—the Saskatchewan model and the TNR model were developed based on the ESM. By designing scenarios to reflect the impacts of climate change, population growth and GHG-control actions, the TNR model can simulate their effects on the energy sector. Using the Saskatchewan model, not only was the total cost of GHG abatement analyzed, but the marginal costs of the whole province and each energy sector were also examined.; The main contribution of the developed ESM model is to provide a powerful tool for researchers and decision-makers in conducting analysis on environmental management, energy planning and emissions calculating, while it was developed to focus on evaluating the impacts of climate change, socioeconomic change and GHG emission-control strategies within the long-term energy planning framework. Although, it was applied to only two regions in Canada in this study, it can be used in multi-regional and national jurisdiction.