声明
摘要
ABSTRACT
CATALOGUE
LIST OF FIGURES
LIST OF TABLES
Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Background
1.1.1 ICT in Business
1.1.2 ICT in Education
1.1.3 ICT in Public Service
1.1.4 ICT in Financial Services
1.1.5 ICT in Entertainment
1.2 Research Problems
1.3 Research Objectives
1.4 Motivation
1.5 Contributions
1.6 Thesis Organization
1.7 Conclusion
Chapter 2 Key Concepts of ICT in Prediction System
2.1 Overviews of ICT in the OECD
2.1.1 Definition of ICT
2.1.2 ICT employment
2.1.3 ICT investment
2.1.4 ICT goods export
2.1.5 Access to the computer from home
2.1.6 Internet access
2.1.7 Role of ICT to the Socio-Economic
2.1.8 Impact of OECD ICT on the Global
2.2 Forecasting Methods
2.2.1 Data Prediction Performance
2.2.2 Prediction Accuracy
2.2.3 Type of Accuracy Measure
2.3 Data Envelopment Analysis
2.3.1 Productivity Growth with DEA
2.3.2 Efficiency with DEA
2.4 Conclusions
Chapter 3 Identifying ICT Performer using DEA and Forecasting Methods
3.1 Data Envelopment Analysis Method
3.1.1 Definition of efficient and inefficient SBM
3.1.2 Definition of Super SBM efficient
3.2 Grey Forecasting Method
3.2.1 Grey Prediction Process
3.2.2 Advantage of Grey model to organization
3.3 Holts Forecasting Method
3.3.1 Holts Prediction Process
3.3.2 Advantage of Holts model to organization
3.4 Total Factor Productivity
3.4.1 Malmquist Productivity Index
3.4.2 Productivity advantage on High Performance
3.5 Mean Absolute Percentage Error Methodology
3.6 Correlation method
Chapter 4 Data Processing and Prediction Procedure
4.1 Collection of Data
4.1.1 Selection of Decision Making Unit
4.1.2 Selection of Variables
4.2 Efficiency and Super efficiency DMUs
4.3 Forecasting using Grey model
4.4 Forecasting using Holts model
4.5 Malmquist ICT Productivity
4.6 MAPE Calculation
4.6.1 MAPE Calculation for Grey Method
4.6.2 MAPE Calculation for Holts Method
4.7 Conclusion
Chapter 5 Results and Analysis
5.1 Variables Correlation
5.1.1 Variables Correlation using Grey model
5.1.2 Variable Correlation using Holt’s model
5.2 MAPE Results
5.2.1 MAPE for Grey model
5.2.2 MAPE for Holt’s mode
5.3 Simulation Results on Grey Method
5.3.1 TFP Analysis using Grey Method
5.3.2 EC Analysis using Grey Method
5.3.3 TC Analysis using Grey Method
5.3.4 PEC Analysis using Grey Method
5.3.5 SEC Analysis using Grey Method
5.4 Simulation Results on Holts Method
5.4.1 TFP Analysis using Holts Method
5.4.2 EC Analysis using Holts Method
5.4.3 IC Analysis using Holts Method
5.4.4 PEC Analysis using Holts Method
5.4.5 SEC Analysis using Holts Method
5.5 Past-Current-Future TFP changes
5.5.1 Past TFP changes
5.5.2 Current TFP changes
5.5.3 Future TFP changes
5.6 Results Comparison between Grey and Holts method
5.6.1 Comparison of Total Factor Productivity
5.6.2 Comparison of Efficiency Change
5.6.3 Comparison of Technological Change
5.7 Conclusions
Chapter 6 Conclusions and Future Directions
6.1 Conclusion and Discussion
6.2 Future Research Directions
6.2.1 Advanced Forecasting Methods
6.2.2 Competitive Analysis of Forecasting Methods
6.2.3 Involving more variables and other factors
6.2.4 Measure the productivity effect using more methods
6.2.5 Using different Error Accuracy Measure
6.3 Limitation and Challenges
6.4 Final Remarks
References
Acronyms
Acknowledgement
Academic Articles and Research Outcomes during PhD Period