Causality between urbanization and rural-urban land conversion: the case of Hubei province

摘要

Causality between urbanization and rural-urban land conversion has significant implications and helps for the government to harmonize two policies of urbanization and food safety in China. In this paper we employ cointegration test, Granger causality test and error correction model(ECM) to examine the causality in Hubei province using time series of 27 from 1978 to 2005. Employing unit root test and cointegration test, we find urbanization and rural-urban land conversion are both integrated of order one and there exists cointegration. Then, we apply Granger causality test, there exists directional causality running from rural-urban land conversion to urbanization but the causality running from urbanization to rural-urban land conversion is not significant statistically. Further, we establish error correction model (ECM) on the different sets of variables. The same direction of causality exists between urbanization and ruralurban land conversion. We conclude that empirical evidence confirms more rural-urban land conversion leads to high urbanization level, rather than vice versa, which is different from the results obtained in earlier studies.