BUS TRAVEL TIME PREDICTION USING AVL AND APC

摘要

The focus of this paper is on using AVL (Automatic Vehicle Location) and APC (Automatic Passenger Counter) empirical data to develop a travel time model capable of providing real time information on bus arrival time to passengers (traveler information services) and to transit controllers for applying proactive control strategies. Three techniques have been used to develop bus travel time prediction models. The evaluation of these techniques showed that the time-lag recurrent neural network model outperformed other models in terms of accuracy and transparency demonstrating its ability to update the model based on new data that reflect the changing characteristics of the transit-operating environment.