Study Travel Time Variability from Probe Vehicle Data

摘要

The variability of travel times on a given route for a particular journey is known to be an important factor in influencing the choice of mode and route for trips, particularly for those trip types where constraints may exist on arrival time at the destination. Previous work in this area has concentrated on long-term variability, such as daily and seasonal variability. This paper describes some results obtained from a study of short-term travel time variability. Data generated by simulation permits the study of the distributions of short-term travel times and the correlation among link/route travel times. It was found, for instance, that strong evidence of significant correlation between link travel times and between link travel time and arrival time, and that conditional link travel time distributions could be represented by normal distributions. Some possible extensions are suggested.