Use of criteria-based rankings in risk-based analysis of ecosystem restoration proejcts

摘要

Little risk-based analysis is currently being a pplied to the evaluation of ecosystem restoration proejcts. Risk=based methods must be congnizant of the fact that there are limited resources to accomplihs these investigation. This paper proposes a flexible set of procedures to guide a risk-based analysis that can be adapted to any size study budget. A criteria-based ranking system is then used to identify potentially important types and sources of undertainty, one of the critical tasks in any risk-based analysis. The procedures and ranking system are applied to the evaluation of a US Corpos of Engineers' project using a set of US Fish and Wildlife Service habitat suitability index models. This eresearch demonstrates the feasibility of using a Monte Carlo process to identify the potential range in peject outputs once critical input variables have been identified.