Terrorism Analysis through Export Networks

摘要

How can economic data be used to analyze the propagation of terrorism and predict the development of terrorist states? Considering the linkages between commerce, communication, and the propagation of ideologies, a global trade network was constructed from publicly available international trade data. Using this network model, a series of network analyses, including subgroup analysis, block analysis, geodesic analysis, and nodal analysis were undertaken. From these analyses, certain network traits were found to be significant in an economic network for state sponsors of terrorism. Thus, a heuristic function consisting of network traits is proposed, based on the results to date. The ultimate purpose of this function is to help predict the susceptibility of nations to becoming terrorist states. This paper is intended as a preliminary analysis into the field of economics and terrorist propagation.