Between the 'Adjustment Strategy' and the 'Balancing Strategy': Modern Foreign Policy of the South Caucasus States

摘要

The authors aim to analyze the modern foreign policies of the South Caucasus countries by applying conceptual approaches of neorealists (adjustment, balancing) in the context of changing international relations. The strategy developed in the period of bipolarity changed in the 1990-2000th when the small and average countries had an opportunity to raise the status on the international scene, reorient the foreign policy taking into account new realities. Each of the South Caucasus countries was inclined to choose this or that strategy, proceeding from foreign policy resources. For the political elite of Armenia, the main issue is the problem of ensuring foreign security. Armenia has chosen an adjustment strategy. The factors that influenced the are the lack of open logistics routes, dependence on Russian gas, dominance of Russian investments, a threat of an escalation of the Karabakh conflict. After the "velvet revolution", the elite of Armenia seeks to combine both strategies. The internal political factor influenced the choice of the policy aimed at joining the EU and the United States when the 2004 change in the elite dramatically changed the country's foreign policy. Azerbaijan with richer natural resources, outlets to the sea, developed logistic routes, a stable political elite, has chosen a balancing strategy which allows the country to successfully converge the interests of such major players as Russia, Turkey, the EU, Iran, the United States, China, and less influential actors performing their own national tasks.