Preparing for Uncertain Mineral Futures--A Survey of AusIMM Members on the Future Issues and Drivers for the Australian Minerals Industry

摘要

This paper presents the results of a large scale survey of The Australasian Institute for Mining and Metallurgy (AusIMM) membership. This survey aimed to understand and define the key issues and drivers that AusIMM members perceived would shape the development of the Australian minerals industry over the next 20 - 30 years. Nine hundred and fifty-nine participants rated the importance of 11 issues and six drivers (generated from interviews with AusIMM members), and 236 of these participants also provided qualitative descriptions of the future. Issues were defined as problems or opportunities for the minerals industry that may be controlled or influenced by the industry, while drivers were defined as those factors that will influence the direction of the industry that are not within the control of the industry. The quantitative data revealed that the top four issues, in order of their perceived importance to the Australian minerals industry, were: investment in exploration, workforce, health and safety, and innovation. The top three drivers in order of their perceived importance, were: economics of mining, global context and Australian society. While the top four issues were largely consistent across professional groups examined, metallurgy and mineral processing professionals rated water inputs and energy inputs significantly higher than the other professional groups. For the list of drivers, there was strong agreement regarding their ranked order of importance across the professional groups examined. Within the qualitative data, however, a single issue (technology) and a single driver (economics of mining) dominated participants' descriptions of the future. These findings provide important input into a broader program of scenario development for the Australian minerals industry being undertaken by CSIRO and its partners. The results of this study demonstrate the importance of using a mixed methodology in generating these inputs to understand more fully how important stakeholders view the future and the factors that will shape it. The results of this study are also discussed with respect to the role that CSIRO may play in facilitating the exploration of uncertainty around the future of the Australian minerals industry.