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The Determinants of Exchange-Rate Volatility

机译:汇率波动的决定因素

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The IDR/USD volatility during January-March 2018 was the lowest compared to the currencies of high-risk countries (fragile five) and in the ASEAN region. Rupiah volatility is around 8%, while Brazilian real volatility is 15%, Mexican pesos is 13%, Turkish lira is 8.8%, Russian ruble is 14%, South Korean won is 9%, Malaysian ringgit is 9.3%, Philippine peso is 8.2%, and Thai baht is 9%. While being compared to the period 2000-2015, the volatility was the highest within the ASEAN (the average is 10%). What happened to the IDR/USD volatility? Using secondary data from Central Bank and IDR/USD exchange rate from 2004 - 2015, we analyzed 143 data with GARCH 1.1, we found that Trade Openness, Reserve Assets, and Stock Market Index negatively and significantly determined The Exchange-rate volatility. Productivity positively and significantly determined The Exchange-Rate Volatility. While Bank Intervention positively but not significantly determined The Exchange-Rate Volatility, and Inflation negative but not significantly determined The Exchange-Rate Volatility. In order to reduce the exchange-rate volatility, the authority will reduce productivity and increase Trade Openness, Reserve Assets, and Stock Market Index.
机译:2018年1月至3月的IDR / USD波动是与高风险国家(脆弱五)和东盟地区的货币相比最低的。卢比波动率约为8%,而巴西真正的波动率为15%,墨西哥比索是13%,土耳其利拉为8.8%,俄罗斯卢布是14%,韩国韩元是9%,马来西亚林吉特为9.3%,菲律宾比索是8.2 %,泰铢是9%。虽然与2000 - 2015年期间相比,波动性在东盟内最高(平均为10%)。 IDR / USD波动率发生了什么?从中央银行和IDR / USD汇率的二级数据从2004年至2015年,我们分析了Garch 1.1的143个数据,我们发现贸易开放,储备资产和股票市场指数负面且显着确定汇率波动。生产率积极且显着确定汇率波动性。虽然银行干预积极但没有显着确定汇率波动,而通货膨胀负面但没有显着确定汇率波动。为了降低汇率波动性,权力将降低生产率,增加贸易开放,储备资产和股票市场指数。

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