Integrated Production Forecast Evaluation in a Complex Gas Market System - A Multidiscipline Approach to Optimize Gas Supply-Demand in South Sumatra PSC Block, Indonesia

摘要

ConocoPhillips Grissik Ltd. (CPGL) is the operator of one of PSC block in onshore South Sumatra, Indonesia. The block consists of 7 gas fields which total gas production and reserves makes it one of the largest fields in Indonesia. As the operator, CPGL generally serves as the seller of gas and services many buyers with differing constraints and demands. Balancing the needs of both buyer and seller is important to ensure a successful long-term supply and demand relationship. Accurate production forecasting is vital to ensuring optimum field development and management because it is a key input to economic evaluation and subsequent business decisions. To capture the future supply, forecasts are required for both the base production assets and new development projects. Accuracy of the production forecast drives decision making for project approval, project timing, need to engage new commercial contracts and optimization of planned maintenance timing. To ensure that the relationship of supply and demand is captured, the operator use an integrated production forecasting tool called the Gas Planning Tool (GPT). This paper explains the methodology behind the GPT and how its results are used to support business decisions in the continued development of the PSC block. The methodology accommodates inputs from multiple disciplines: reservoir, commercial, surface facilities, operations downtime, and new drill/facility project schedules. The inputs are integrated and optimized solving for the interaction among input parameters and generates a production forecast that honors all the constraints. The value from the analysis is insights to improve understanding of relationships between different variables and variance between plans. Gas Planning Tool (GPT) has sucessfully captured the gas supply-demand relationship and helped optimize incremental opportunities, timing of opportunities and idenfied the need for projects and commercial contracts.