Comparision of the Different Probability Distributions for Earthquake Hazard Assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

摘要

In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900- 2015 for magnitude M> 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone ( 39°-41°N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smimov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed time using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.