A partition and quantitative method of risk level based on rheology and mutation theory

摘要

Because poor risk assessment effect resulted from the unreasonable of existing partition method of risk level, this paper proposes a partition and quantitative method of risk level based on rheology and mutation theory. Firstly, considering tailings dam as an example, deeply analyze the rheology and highlight characteristics of dam in the operation phase, and research the rheology and mutation mechanism of the dam failure accidents. Second, combining with first-order natural frequency of tailings dam, a division method of risk level is proposed. Finally, the risk level is quantified by introducing possibility distribution, and simulation verification by an instance. The results show that partition method of risk level is reasonable and its possibility distribution also reflects the stability of the dam body strength effectively.