Forecasting on China's Labor Supply and Demand Gap during 2018-2035

摘要

Based on the changing discipline of labor participation proportion in different age groups rule and the prediction results of future population structure and total amount by using Leslie model, this paper estimates the labor supply of working-age population in China from 2018 to 2035. In addition, based on the analysis of time series model, this paper predicts the change of labor demand in China from 2018 to 2035. The influence of technological progress is considered in the process of forecasting labor demand. The forecasting results show that the gap between supply and demand of labor force in China will be widen in the near future. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to guarantee the supply of labor force in China in the aspects of population policy, retirement policy, industrial structure reform and education system.