FINANCIAL IMPACT ESTIMATE FOR RADIOINDUCED CANCER TREATMENT FOLLOWING RDD SCENARIOS

摘要

This study aims to propose a methodology to estimate the possible financial impact of cancer development and treatment over general public as consequence of a radiological event. Asymmetric threats involving radioactive materials and its consequences are being studied by some groups worldwide but without using the concept of methodology of convergence. This concept is based on combining single platforms into a package in order to effectively support the decision-making process during an emergency. A Radiological Dispersive Device (RDD) can be built of small amounts of explosive and radioactive material which are packed together. A fictional scenario was modeled using cesium-137. The venue is the Athletes Park, located in the city of Rio de Janeiro which will host large events such as Olympics. The RDD explosion was modeled using the HotSpot Health Physics Codes 3.0, which provided radioactive isodoses over the affected location with thresholds in agreement with those recommended by Brazilian National Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEN). Also included in the results, Hotspot simulated the contaminated area and, the total effective dose for individuals. Estimative about excess relative risk (ERR) were performed by using Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation V (BEIR V) report and TECDOC-870 (IAEA - Methods for Estimating the Probability of Cancer from Occupation Radiation Exposure). Leukemia was considered as morbidity for this study due to its short period of latency. The Total Body Irradiation was considered as a treatment and the financial impact was roughly estimated about coasts excluding logistical issues which should be calculated for each specific demand in further studies.