Utilizing Maxwell-Boltzmann Statistic to Predict Dynamic Trend Lines and Percentage of Price Changes

摘要

In this paper, we've investigated the involvement of closing volumes on closing prices in order to achieve a better trend lines indicator. Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution physical statistic law and its probabilistic formula were utilyzed to analyze the dynamic trend lines and deviation percentage of price changes, where closing prices and volumes were used as variables indeed. Many traders ignore volumes; however, there is a huge number of information in it, particularly in volume of closing prices. This Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution law could be manipulated to predict shares dynamic trend lines in Indonesian Stock Exchanges market. Since these analysis could be utilized to predict the dynamic trend lines on bullish or bearish market, and percentage of price changes, than; 1. We are going to have the comparison of the dynamic trend line changes (uptrend or down trend) by utilizing Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution law, and compare them to the George Lane stochastic oscillator formula. The result of the comparison percentage was 72,14 to 42,26, (72.14% right for Maxwell-Boltzmann, and 42% right for George Lane stochastic oscillator). 2. On the other hand, the utilization of Maxwell-Boltzmann probability, gains percentage of minimum price changes around ± 0 to 3.59 percent (minimum deviation), and (maximum deviation) around ± 0 to 4,67 percent, in Indonesian Stock Exchanges market.