An Analysis of Energy Consumption and GHG Emissions Reduction for Hubei Using the LEAP Model

摘要

As the low-carbon pilot area, Hubei Province has faced tremendous pressure on GHG emissions reduction with rapid economic growth. However, Guangdong Province has balanced the economic development and energy consumption well. "Guangdong Mode" represents the reasonable industry structure, energy structure and lower energy intensity. In this paper, LEAP-Hubei model was established to predict the level of GHG emissions and energy consumption in Hubei from now to 2025. Three scenarios were set: Base Scenario, "Guangdong Mode" I and "Guangdong Mode" II. The results show that "Guangdong Mode" and The "New Normal" have a significant effect on energy consumption and GHG emissions reduction for Hubei. When "Guangdong Mode" and the "New Normal" meet in Hubei, the energy consumption and GHG emissions will reach the top.