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Factors behind the Russian Ruble Depreciation

机译:俄罗斯卢布折旧背后的因素

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The primary cause of recent Russian economic downturn is the decline in global oil prices, which led to the currency crisis in Russia. However, other factors, which might have considerable effects on ruble exchange rate, are overlooked-for example changes in gold and gas prices, Russian interest rates, development of stock market and last but not least development of the USD exchange rate itself. A close relationship among these variables may be suspected. The purpose of this article is to discover this relationship and determine the impact of these variables on changes in the ruble exchange rate with the aid of cointegration analysis. It has been found out that besides the decline of the oil price, also decline of gold price, rise of stock market, increase in interest rates and appreciation of USD played a significant role in depreciation of ruble.
机译:近期俄罗斯经济衰退的主要原因是全球油价下降,导致俄罗斯货币危机。然而,可能对卢布汇率具有相当大的影响的其他因素被忽视 - 例如黄金和天然气价格的变化,俄罗斯利率,股票市场的发展,最后但并非最不重要地发展USD汇率本身。这些变量之间的密切关系可以怀疑。本文的目的是发现这种关系,并确定这些变量对CoIntegration分析的卢布汇率变化的影响。已经发现,除了油价下降之外,黄金价格下降,股票市场的涨幅,利率增加和股票升值在鲁莽贬值方面发挥了重要作用。

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