A New Analytical Solution for Predicting Oil Rate Vs. Time in Waterflood Using Various Injection Plans

摘要

This paper introduces a new method and its analytical basis for predicting oil rate vs. time for fields under water flood or water influx. Application to actual waterfloods and water influx cases are included as case studies. Majority of analytical solutions on this subject discussed in the literature have in the past focused on extrapolation of WOR or water cut vs. cumulative production. When it gets to forecast oil rate vs. time, many practitioners have resorted to Arps type decline analysis methods. The shortcomings of decline analysis techniques are primarily their lack of honoring the physics of the immiscible displacement processes. In the application of the proposed method for predicting into the future, assumptions need to be made about the injection rate plans or estimated influx rate based on past histories relating injection or influx to the gross production rates.