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The Analysis of Carbon Price Volatility Properties in EU-ETS

机译:欧盟 - ETS碳价格波动性分析

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Carbon market has attracted the attention from all over the world. This paper applies several statistical methods to analyze the price volatility properties of the Europe Union Emission Trade Scheme, and develops an integrated VEC-MVGARCH model to investigate the dynamic nonlinear relationships of EUA and CER markets under the EU-ETS. Empirical results indicate that both returns and volatilities are nonlinearly, asymmetrically and dynamically related. Returns of EUA and CER are cointegrated in the long run with deviations adjusted by their error correction mechanism. Significant effect of return spillover is detected and EUA plays the leading role in the short-run dynamics. Moreover, volatilities of EUA and CER are asymmetrically linked. Volatility spillover is detected and EUA reacts to new information first and transmits it to CER, leading the dynamics of market volatility. The findings of EUA and CER relations may help traders optimize carbon portfolio and manage climate risks.
机译:碳市场引起了世界各地的关注。本文采用若干统计方法来分析欧洲联盟排放贸易计划的价格波动性能,并开发一个集成的Vec-MVGARCH模型,以研究EUA和CER市场在欧盟-ETE下的动态非线性关系。经验结果表明,返回和挥发性都是非线性的,不对称和动态相关的。 EUA和CER的回程在长期运行中结合,通过纠错机制调整调整的偏差。检测到回报溢出的显着影响,EuA在短期动态中发挥着主导作用。此外,EUA和CER的挥发性是不对称的。检测波动溢出溢出,EuA首先对新信息进行反应并将其传输到CER,引领市场波动的动态。 EUA和CER关系的调查结果可以帮助贸易商优化碳投资组合并管理气候风险。

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