An analysis method of medical insurance fund risk based on Gray GM(1,1) model and classical risk model

摘要

An analysis method based on the Gray theory and risk theory about medical insurance fund risk was first presented. This method first used model GM(1,1) to detect extracted data of medical insurance premiums, then using the GM(1,1) model to model and forecast the data when it was satisfied with the model condition. Second calculating the ruin probability which was based on classical risk model to analyze the medical insurance fund risk and predict. This paper described the process of algorithm implementation, and verified the feasibility and effectiveness of the method by an example of an urban medical insurance fund data.