Study on China's carbon emission three factors simulation in the 12th Five-Year Plan: 2011-2020 in an Economy-Energy-Environment Framework

摘要

In an Economy-Energy-Environment framework, we use system dynamics simulation analysis, thermal coal equivalent, by 2000-2010 history data, divide GDP into three industries, energy into coal, petrol, natural gas and electricity subdivision 9 energy, environment per person carbon emissions, build 9 simplified in-tree model and simulation equation. On the goal of per person GDP double index, simulation per person carbon emission in 2011-2020. subject to the 12th Five-Year Plan (E1)-GDP growth 7% and the industry structure of 6%, 45%, 49% and in 2020 10000 RMB carbon emission degrade 40%-45% to one in 2015, energy (E2)-the goal of energy consumption total, energy consumption structure and 10000 GDP energy consumption in energy The 12th Five-Year Plan, in the hypothesis of scheme A-secondary industry decrease rate 0.1% per-year and tertiary industry growth rate 0.15% per-year and scheme B-percent of secondary industry adjust to forty five percent and tertiary industry adjust to forty nine percent two scheme, get the goal of double GDP per population in 2017, it is positive to increase energy efficiency and decrease to carbon emission for industry adjustment, scheme is better to achieve the 12th Five-Year goal.