Statistical Model for Genesis of Typhoons in North West Pacific

摘要

This study intends to establish a statistical model for the typhoon genesis around North Pacific Ocean. In the first place, Typhoon genesis from 1951 to 2010 has been discretized into grid size of 5° in both latitude and longitude, where the number of occurrences in each cell is counted. In order to build probabilistic approximation of the occurrences, KDE (kernel density estimation) method is introduced since the distribution of the occurrences shows nonparametric characteristics. Random samplings from CDF (Cumulative Density Function) of occurrences in directions of latitude and longitude have shown that the present model of genesis converges to the original distribution with increased number of samples.