European scenario studies on future in-stream nutrient concentrations

摘要

Large scale water quality issues have recently become the focus of policy and research. To give insight into large scale water quality issues a scenario analysis was carried out for Europe using the continental water quality model WorldQual with totalnitrogen and phosphorus as example substances. Future nitrogen and phosphorus loadings and in-stream concentrations were simulated for the "Economy First" scenario and compared to contemporary conditions. Results indicate that future total nitrogen loadings are likely to decrease due to land-use change and improvements in land-use management. Climate change has less impact on total nitrogen loadings but has an impact on future in-stream concentrations caused by reduced river water availability. Futuretotal phosphorus loadings are similar to contemporary loadings, but it can be expected that in-stream concentrations increase because of climate change and declined river water availability. The impact of land-use change on future total phosphorus in-stream concentrations is low.