APPLICATION OF A DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC ADAPTIVE BIOECONOMIC MODEL TO EVALUATE THE ECONOMICS OF OFFSHORE BLUEFIN TUNA AQUACULTURE

摘要

Over the past fifteen years, the market for bluefin tuna has evolved in an attempt to further enhance the economic value of bluefin tuna landings. Historically, the US East Coast has been a major supplier of high quality bluefin tuna to Japan, the primary market for sashimi grade tuna. To date, many questions regarding the economic feasibility of offshore aquaculture, and in particular offshore bluefin tuna farming in the United States, remain unanswered. This research assesses the economic feasibility of an offshore bluefin tuna aquaculture industry located on the East Coast of the US by developing a dynamic stochastic adaptive bioeconomic model of such an offshore enterprise. The bioeconomic model incorporates the biological constraints of the species, the interaction of relevant economic parameters and constraints, and stochastic sources of risk, to solve for the profit maximizing behavior of a farmed bluefin tuna producer. This research identifies the optimal harvest schedule for an offshore bluefin tuna farming facility that maximizes the net present value of the operation under a variety of economic, biological and regulatory conditions. Economic feasibility is analyzed using profitability indicators including net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). This research is relevant given the continued expansion of bluefin tuna aquaculture globally, the increasing demand for high-quality bluefin tuna, and the uncertainty regarding the economic feasibility of an offshore bluefin tuna aquaculture industry in the United States.