A Comparative Study on the Factors Influencing China's AgriculturalCommodity Price

摘要

This paper examines the impact effects of four factors, including international agricultural commodity price, consumer prices, costs of agricultural production and RMB real effective exchange rate, on agricultural commodity price in China from year 2000 to 2011. Applying VAR models, impulse response function and variance decomposition, the result shows that the domestic price environment and the international agricultural commodity price are regarded as the main influencing factors both during the two divided periods (from January in 2000 to December in 2005 and from January in 2006 to July in 2011) and the entire sample time, though there have been differences among the three comparative periods. In order to control the domestic agricultural price, the government should pay more attention to resisting the impact from international market.