Quantitative Study on the Relation between Water Disaster and Grain Production of Hubei Province

摘要

The grain fluctuation situation of Hubei was analyzed by calculating the grain fluctuation coefficient from 1990s. And the quantitative correlation between grain production and the water disaster was studied by grey correlation analysis. The results were shown as follows. The main water disaster factors impacting grain production were effective irrigated area and planting structure, the relationship degree of which with grain yield is respectively 0.91 and 0.85 ranking the first two among all the selected factors. It was shown that water disaster influenced the grain yield heavily. Food is not only a special commodity of strategic importance, but also an important component of the national security strategy and the basis for economic development. China is dominated by agriculture in a long term. Flood and drought, especially serious flood and drought will be bound to result in a significant reduction in grain-based agricultural products, with a large number of reduction in agricultural productions, and the reproduction of the agricultural disaster areas coming to a standstill. Hubei is a major agricultural province in China, which has long been an important commodity grain production bases in China. Hubei is located in the monsoon climate, where natural disaster occurs frequently, and water disaster is particularly serious. The type of disasters is various and whose hazards are also very heavy. Flood, drought, water logging happened each other in various degrees every year. Particularly in the "Ninth Five-Year Plan" period, floods and droughts occur by turns, as well as the pests, animal diseases from the stage, causing serious losses to agriculture and the food security of Hubei in hidden dangers. Given the important role of Hubei Province in China on food security and the frequency of water disasters, the quantitative analysis of water disaster over food security in Hubei, was done, which have great significance in improving water disaster management standards and ensuring food security of Hubei and even the whole nation, based on historical data.