A New Approach Based on Statistical Modeling of Electrical Consumption for Electrical Generator Demand Estimation

摘要

With the last generation of large aircraft, the electrical needs have increased to reach a power close to 1MW. A power increase directly impacts one of the prominent criterions in aircraft design process: weight. Therefore, designers face the challenge to reduce generation while the power demand is increasing. The proposed paper details a methodology based on statistical approach to estimate the electrical consumption of an electrical network. Moreover, the modeling proposed in this paper allows taking into account peaks defined by their power and duration. Based on in-service measurements on commercial aircraft flights, this study proposes two methods to estimate electrical consumption of an electrical network. The first method is described. Based on modeling thanks to an efficient clustering, a Monte Carlo simulation is performed on all the loads to estimate the electrical power on the network with relevant results. As the generator has an overload capability during a known time, the second method proposed calls in an enhanced model in order to take into account duration aspects. The whole process of this new model creation is detailed and illustrated. Finally, this method is applied to simulate the behavior of consumption and duration of an electrical network.