NASA AMES RESEARCH CENTER CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS AND ADAPTATION RESEARCH: HIND- AND FORECASTING FLOOD RISK OF NASA AMES RESEARCH CENTER USING THE BASINS MODEL

摘要

NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), located at the southern end of San Francisco Bay, CA is at increased risk of flooding under future climate change scenarios. Sea level rise, accompanied with tidal action, storm surges, and local erosion, may cause inundation at current levee heights. Also, possible changes in storm frequency and intensity, as well as land use changes, could cause inland flooding by fresh water. This analysis uses the BASINS (Better Assessment Science Integrating point & Non-point Sources) model to simulate hydrologic conditions at NASA ARC during selected past El Ni?o events and possible future precipitation scenarios. The 1997/98 storm event caused flooding on the Center, while the 1977/78 and the 1992/93 events, which were similar in precipitation amount and frequency, did not. BASINS modeled these past heavy precipitation events and other future storm events under projected climate conditions to assess flood risk at NASA ARC. These preliminary results will assist master planners in adapting new procedures for NASA ARC future developments with awareness of anticipated climate change effects.