A SIMPLE FRAMEWORK FOR PROACTIVE MANAGEMENT TO MITIGATE UNSUSTAINABILITY IN FISHERIES: ESTIMATING RISKS OF EXCEEDING LIMIT REFERENCE POINTS OF BIO-ECOLOGIC, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INDICATORS

摘要

The complexities of managing a marine fishery involving high exclusion costs, and high information and enforcement costs, are presented together with a set of mitigating strategies to deal with them. Designing intelligent management plans for marine fisheries require assessing fishery performance over time through the use of sustainability indicators; limit reference points (LRPs) and the corresponding control law to generate proactively management strategies when estimated risks are perceived as toohigh by the decision-maker. To account for natural variability and other sources of uncertainly, estimates of risks of exceeding LRPs are needed to re-evaluate periodically the fishery and establish new reference points and corresponding management strategies. This paper concentrates on this aspect of the precautionary management process through the use of a simple framework to deal with unsustainability factors affecting fishery performance over time. It presents a classification of bio-ecologic, economic/social and institutional indicators of critical unsustainability factors previously identified. The major steps used in the application of the Monte Carlo method to estimate the risks of exceeding limit reference points are introduced. The need forconsidering data collection, advanced modelling and risk analysis for the use of sustainability indicators and reference points within the ecosystem based fishery management approach (EBFM), is also discussed.