European CO{sub}2 Change From the Increased Percentage of Diesel Passenger Cars in European Union

摘要

Carbon dioxide emissions of the transport sector are one of the most important anthropogenic sources of this gas. The decrease of CO{sub}2 emissions can be achieved by the replacement of gasoline by diesel passenger cars (PC), which emit less CO{sub}2. This method is applied in the case of the European Union (EU, 15 countries members). The EU new PC market is analyzed since 1970 and some estimations for the future (in the year 2020) fleet are presented. Fifty scenarios, using the number of new PC registrations, the fuel consumption (current and estimated future one), the diesel penetration and the segment distribution are applied to estimate the future CO{sub}2 emissions change from new passenger cars in the EU. The results show that there are important differences between the 15 countries, because their PC fleets are very different. Globally, a significant decrease, up to 5%, can be obtained in the case of the current EU fleet using higher diesel penetration for the current or estimated future fuel consumption. However, in the case of future new passenger cars registrations, the CO{sub}2 emissions present an important increase, from 17 to 23%, due to increased new passenger cars registrations. The increased diesel penetration and the lower future fuel consumption help to partially control this increase.