Integration of probabilistic modelling within consumer and environmental risk assessments: reporting, communicating and contextualising the risks

摘要

The use of probabilistic exposure assessment and risk analysis leads to the corollary that there needs to be sufficient confidence in the outputs for their effective integration into regulatory decision making. This paper will present the current status of probabilistic tools as used within consumer and environmental risk assessments in the EU. It will also provide examples of reporting styles and insights into risk communication, particularly for context setting of risk outputs against the problem formulation. Using worked examples to illustrate deterministic risk endpoints and how they match to probabilistic outputs, the coherence of the probabilistic risk approach is maintained thereby increasing confidence in its use. The paper will also identify where such approaches have limited relevance.