DEVELOPMENT OF A NATIONAL STANDARD FOR ESTIMATING THE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH AIRCRAFT CRASH INTO A HAZARDOUS FACILITY

摘要

In the past, aircraft crash analysis was based primarily on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Standard Review Plan (SRP) (NUREG-0800). Since the conservatism of that approach was widely recognized, various analysts tried to improve upon it. This has resulted in a proliferation of different interpretations on how best to make improvements, which has led to significant criticisms of all the resultant approaches. The U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) decided to take the lead in addressing this problem and has initiated an effort to develop a Standard for the analysis of aircraft crash risk with a greater acceptance and wider application than any approaches currently employed. To accomplish this, USDOE has established an Inter-Agency Working Group (IWG) on Aircraft Crash and Risk Analysis Methodology (ACRAM), supported by an Expert Panel. The Standard being developed will establish (1) two models to be used for calculating the frequency of a crash into a building -- one for screening and one for more realistic estimates; (2) crash rates and crash distribution probabilities based on the most comprehensive set of historical data currently available; (3) techniques to be used for determining the level of damage specific categories of aircraft will cause to a facility, starting from a simplified screening technique and progressing (as necessary) to finite element analysis; and (4) two approaches to be used for estimating the consequence of a hazardous material release to the public - one for bounding the potential consequence and one for performing a more realistic assessment. The Standard will apply the various steps above using an algorithm, which will minimize the amount of analysis to be performed on facilities that pose little risk. For facilities that have a greater risk, the algorithm in the standard will result in a targeted risk assessment that will identify where the aircraft crash risk is coming from and provide the insights necessary to develop alternatives to reduce the risk.