Lifecycle Based User Value Analysis of Rail-Road Level Crossings: Probabilistic Approach Using Monte Carlo Simulation

摘要

Railway operators are in continuous pressure to minimize maintenance and rehabilitation costs of infrastructures; at the same time they are expected to provide a reliable service by optimum allocation of natural and economical resources. Railway tracks and level crossings are long-lived assets where their service life stretch 30 to 100 years. This paper aims to show an approach that serve as a decision support whereby expert's knowledge can directly be integrated by using a delphiround. A proposed methodology is illustrated by application examples using level crossings commonly used in Austria by Wiener Lokalbahnen. Lifecycle based user-product performance-expectations and economic imperatives could be incorporated through the development of key performance metrics. Assessment criteria are set by allocation percentages for value criteria under these criteria are the sub value-contingencies where Monte Carlo simulation is used for probabilistic scenario analysis. The approach facilitates the first step for a detailed lifecycle cost analysis of infrastructures by supporting experts and non-expert decision makers to get a quicker overview on system benefits as well as serve as a bridge to the practical application of more robust data-driven lifecycle cost analysis.