Effects of Cotton Price on China's Cotton Import and the Analysis of Marginal Import Effects

摘要

Since the reform of cotton circulation system, the contradiction between supply and demand of domestic cotton is more prominent, the fluctuation of China's cotton imports is intense. In order to analyze the internal mechanism of the quantity fluctuation of cotton import in china and the impact of cotton price (the international cotton price, the China's cotton price) on China's cotton imports, this paper build supply and demand balance equation, and derived the theoretical relationship between cotton price (the international cotton price, the China's cotton price) and China's cotton import. In order to verify the derivation of the theoretical relationship, we calculate the marginal effect of China's cotton import on the special value of the cotton price (the international cotton price, the China's cotton price) in this paper, and analyze the relationship between the cotton price and the China's cotton imports through the calculation of the marginal effect. The main analysis results are as follows: the decrease of negative effect of the international cotton price on the China's cotton import is conducive to promote the balance of supply and demand in China's cotton market, on the contrary, it is not conducive to promote the balance of supply and demand in China's cotton market.