1 More ethane extraction capability coming – growth mainly from regions with high transport costs - high degree of discretion to reject. 2 Overseas exports will be needed to help balance U.S. ethane markets, but there are limitations: ? Economics are there to crack ethane versus naphtha. ? Requires large investments and commitments on the export and import sides to make an U.S. export project feasible. ? Initially, Europe most likely overseas market for US ethane. ? Mariner East should be able to export 40 MBPD and if an export terminal is built on USGC it could be sized for 70 to 100 MBPD. 3 Don’t discount that pipeline exports to Canada could increase. 4 Asia represents long-term export market for both feedstock and fuel needs – timing likely dependent on Panama Canal expansion. 5 Overall, US ethane prices to remain correlated with gas prices, with occasional price surges when inventories dip too low.
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