Why Is This Market So Sick? What Will Make It Better?(PPT)

摘要

Topics and Take-Aways :1.Vital Signs: A Sick Market.2.Why Is This Market So Sick?(A: Anemic Demand + An Elevated Supply Count + Aggressive Competitive Bugs)2.1 Structural changes in China – rapid demand decline/slower supply adjustments.2.2 Two floods in the United States this year – one from rain and another from imports.2.3 Weak phosphate currencies – lower local currency costs for key exporters help fuel....2.4 Aggressive competitive strategies(to accelerate expected structural adjustments).2.5 Expectations of lower prices cause demand deferral and drawdown of high channel inventories.3.What Will Make It Better?(A: A Shot of Strong Demand + A Stabilized Supply Count + Structural Adjustments).3.1 Demand is not dead – slowly improving agricultural fundamentals but little price impact so far.3.2 Positive demand prospects in the new growth regions.3.3 Demand recovery in USA and less drag from China and India.3.4 Continuation of Chinese industry restructuring.3.5 Final ramp up of new capacity with no world-scale projects in the pipeline.3.6 A trigger event to change fundamentals,price expectations and sentiment.