Emergy-based urban dynamic modeling of long-run resource consumption, economic growth and environmental impact: conceptual considerations and calibration

摘要

This paper describes the development of a forecasting model, named the emergy-based urban dynamic model capable of accurately simulating the observed resource consumption, economic growth and environmental impact of Beijing. This model differs from previous urban emergy models by monitoring the negative effects to human well-being and ecosystem integrity in the developing urban system. A fresh perspective focuses on urban comprehensive performance linking such impacts to a supply-side environmental cost evaluation (including ecological service supply, ecological and economic losses and investment for treatment). In this introductory paper, we present the conceptual considerations of the most important components of the emergy-based urban dynamic model: the urban assets, lands, capitals, population, water resources, economic and environmental loss. Each subsystem in this model will enrich the feedback dynamics, policy levers and post-scenario analyses. Statistical Information and calibration are also considered in this dynamic emergy accounting. This study advances the temporal dynamic principles of emergy accounting through integrating upstream and downstream evaluation methods to quantify the environmental impact by addressing specific damages to human health and ecosystem's integrity and by linking such impacts to a supply-side environmental cost evaluation.