We have recently undertaken a major review of LNG consequence modeling, compiling a wide range of historical information with more recent experiments and modeling approaches. All the main consequence routes were reviewed – discharge, evaporation, pool and jet fire, vapor cloud explosions, rollover, and Rapid Phase Transitions (RPT’s). Unresolved technical issues are explored such as cascading failures, fire engulfment of a carrier, accelerated evaporation by LNG penetration into water, and the circumstances for a possible LNG BLEVE. Very different mechanisms for LNG spread on water are examined. An RPT model developed for spills of molten metal on water is considered for application to LNG spills on water. The aim of this compilation is to assemble material in a convenient form, with emphasis on the underlying mechanisms, typical equations, and relevant data. Experimental data bases are assembled for tests on pool spread and evaporation, burn rates, dispersion, fire and radiation and effects on personnel and structures. Various model predictions are compared of the largest size reached by LNG pools on water, flammable vapor clouds, and fire radiation contours. Numerical solution techniques (integral vs CFD approaches) are compared. Current regulations are summarized noting the trend towards risk-based regulations. Finally, claims made by antagonists to the industry are documented and assessments made on as scientific a basis as possible.
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